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Psychology

Self-fulfilling prophecy

Overview

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a phenomenon in which a prediction or belief that had no basis at first ends up becoming real through actions based on that belief. It's a concept Robert K. Merton discussed in a 1948 paper.

A classic example is a bank run. When a baseless rumor that "that bank is going to fail" spreads, depositors rush to withdraw their money all at once, and the bank really does go under. The rumor itself had no basis, but the rumor changed people's actions, and the actions changed reality. The prophecy fulfilled itself.

Question boxes and self-fulfilling prophecies

In running a question box, the belief that "no questions will come" is an example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The belief that "nobody's going to ask me anything anyway" could lead you to hold back on promoting your box, make the link in your profile less noticeable, and let the quality of your answers slip. As a result, your questions might really drop. The prophecy becomes real through your own actions.

The opposite pattern exists too. The belief that "my question box is lively" is behind active promotion, careful answers, and sharing your Q&A. The flow in which questions increase as a result is a positive self-fulfilling prophecy.

Rewriting the prophecy

The tricky part of a self-fulfilling prophecy is that the result "proves" the prediction. If you change your behavior because you think "no questions will come" and then questions really stop coming, your conviction that "I knew it, I just don't get questions" may grow stronger. But the reason no questions came may lie in the prophecy itself rather than in your ability or appeal.

To rewrite the prophecy, start by becoming aware of what prophecies you hold, such as "my answers are boring" or "I only get unpleasant questions." When you notice negative prophecies like these, deliberately do the opposite. Answer carefully even if you think your answers are boring, and open your question box even if you think unpleasant questions will come. A change in behavior brings a change in results and becomes a chance to rewrite the prophecy.

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